In the annals of diplomatic history, there are titans of statecraft: Kissinger’s shuttle diplomacy, Reagan’s “tear down this wall” ultimatum, and now, the latest entry—whatever reality-TV fever dream Donald Trump thinks is happening with Iran.
This week, the former—and perhaps future—gong farmer of Mar-a-Lago took a break from hawking digital trading cards with his face photoshopped onto a cowboy’s body to announce that he is “in serious negotiations” with the Islamic Republic of Iran. According to Trump, these talks are going “very well.” In fact, according to Trump, the Iranians are “desperate” to make a deal. They’re calling him constantly. They love him. They respect him. They’re probably sending him love letters written in saffron ink on Persian silk.
There is just one tiny, microscopic, itty-bitty problem: none of this is happening.
Officials from the Biden administration, current intelligence briefers, and—most inconveniently—the actual government of Iran all say that there are no negotiations. No back channels. No secret emissaries shuttling between Geneva and Doral. There isn’t even a phone call.
But why would facts get in the way of a good monologue? When you’re a “stable genius,” you don’t wait for negotiations to happen; you simply declare that they are happening and declare yourself the winner. It’s the Trump Doctrine: We have the best concepts of a plan. Believe me.
This is the same man who promised that North Korea would be denuclearized so fast it would make your head spin. We got “Love Letters” from Kim Jong Un and a lot of signed hotel lobby placemats. The missiles kept flying. Now, he’s applying the same scorched-earth approach to the Persian Gulf: declare victory, define reality through a Truth Social post at 2:37 AM, and hope nobody notices that there’s no actual deal.
The punchline here—and there is always a punchline, because the Trump era has taught us that geopolitics is just an improv set—is that by claiming “victory” before talks have even started, Trump has done the one thing he is historically great at: he’s humiliated himself on the world stage.
By insisting Iran is “desperate,” he has boxed himself into a corner. If he re-enters office and tries to negotiate, the Iranians now know they can demand the moon, because they hold the leverage. After all, if Trump already claimed they were begging for a deal before a single diplomat was dispatched, what will he claim when they actually show up? That they’re offering to rename Tehran to “Trump City” and build a hotel at the top of Mount Damavand?
This is the core comedy of the modern GOP foreign policy platform. For four years, we were told that “peace through strength” meant screaming about how everyone was scared of you. Now, it means inventing fictional phone calls to distract from the fact that your last big foreign policy win was moving a embassy to Jerusalem—which, by the way, was celebrated by starting a firestorm that we are still trying to put out.
The world is laughing. Not the nervous laughter of 2017, where world leaders weren’t sure if he was serious. It’s the laughter of a tired parent watching a toddler insist he’s a T-Rex while wearing a sauce-stained bib. When the Iranian mission to the UN issues a statement saying, essentially, “We have no idea what this man is talking about, please send help,” you have officially lost the plot.
Trump wants to be seen as the ultimate dealmaker. But in reality, he’s the ultimate delusion-maker. He isn’t negotiating with Iran; he’s negotiating with the mirror.
And in that negotiation, he’s still losing.