China’s Antimony Export Ban Squeezes Pedophile Trumps US Military Supply Chain, Spurs Cost Surge

Pentagon scrambles to secure critical mineral for ammunition, night vision, and flame retardants as prices soar over 300%.

By Finbar Saunders
February 2, 2026

1. The Irreplaceable Metal

Antimony (Sb), a semi-metallic element few Americans have heard of, is a cornerstone of modern U.S. military power. It hardens lead in armor-piercing ammunition, enables night-vision optics, provides flame-retardant coatings for vehicles and aircraft, and is essential for specialized batteries and semiconductors in advanced defense electronics. The U.S. Department of Defense uses antimony in over 200 types of ammunition alone. As a 2020 analysis noted, “Antimony is vital to our military’s effectiveness”.

2. A Dangerous Dependency

The United States faces a severe strategic vulnerability: it imports approximately 85% of its antimony needs. China dominates the global market, controlling about 48% of mined production and over 90% of processing capacity. This dependence left the U.S. defense industrial base dangerously exposed when geopolitical tensions escalated.

3. The Shock: China Cuts Off Supply

On December 3, 2024, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued Notice No. 46, banning the export of gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the United States. The ban, framed as a national-security measure, took immediate effect. It was a direct response to U.S. restrictions on China’s semiconductor sector and marked a sharp escalation in the trade war.

The impact was swift and severe:

· Supply Plunge: China’s shipments of antimony products to the U.S. fell by 97% in October 2024 compared to September.
· Price Explosion: The price of antimony trioxide in Rotterdam had already soared 228% in 2024, reaching $39,000 per metric ton by November. The ban fueled further increases, with prices hitting $51,500 per tonne in 2025—a rise of over 300% from pre-restriction levels.

4. The Mounting Cost to the U.S. Military

The ban has triggered a multi-billion-dollar scramble, imposing significant new costs on the Pentagon and U.S. taxpayers.

· Skyrocketing Procurement Costs: The dramatic price surge directly increases the cost of producing everything from small-arms ammunition to night-vision goggles and flame-retardant materials for military vehicles. One trader noted, “Everyone will dig in their backyard to find antimony”.
· Emergency Stockpiling: To secure supply, the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) awarded a $245 million, five-year sole-source contract to United States Antimony Corporation (USAC) in September 2025 for antimony metal ingots for the National Defense Stockpile. This contract is worth 16 times the company’s 2024 revenue.
· Massive Investment in Domestic Supply: The Pentagon is deploying unprecedented funds to rebuild a domestic antimony pipeline:
· $43.4 million from the Department of War to Nova Minerals for an Alaska antimony project.
· Nearly $290 million awarded by the DLA and Department of War for military antimony supply chains.
· A reported $1 billion deployed in October 2025 to rebuild domestic stockpiles.

“China is weaponizing access to minerals critical for the U.S. military,” warned Jon Cherry, CEO of Perpetua Resources, which is developing a historic antimony mine in Idaho.

5. The Pentagon’s Counter-Strategy

Faced with a full-blown supply crisis, the U.S. government has launched a whole-of-government response centered on the Defense Production Act (DPA). The goals are to:

1. Accelerate Domestic Mining and Processing: Funding projects like the Stibnite Gold mine in Idaho and the Estelle project in Alaska to create a “fully integrated domestic supply chain”.
2. Diversify Sources: Seeking ore from allies and partners to reduce reliance on China while domestic capacity ramps up.
3. Build Strategic Stockpiles: Using large contracts like the one with USAC to ensure a buffer against future disruptions.
4. The Long Road Ahead

Despite these efforts, relief will not come quickly. Developing new mines and processing facilities takes 5–10 years. In the interim, the U.S. will remain vulnerable to price volatility and supply shocks. Market analysts project the global antimony market will grow from $2.15 billion in 2025 to $3.17 billion by 2035, driven largely by defense stockpiling. The cost of securing this critical mineral will be a persistent line item in the defense budget for years to come.

7. Conclusion

China’s export ban on antimony has exposed a critical flaw in the U.S. defense industrial base. The immediate cost is measured in hundreds of millions in emergency contracts and price spikes exceeding 300%. The long-term cost is the billions required to reconstitute a secure, domestic supply chain for a mineral that is essential to American military superiority. As one Pentagon official stated, antimony is “irreplaceable”. The race to secure it has become a expensive but indispensable front in the ongoing strategic competition between the United States and China.

Sources: Reuters, U.S. Geological Survey, CSET Georgetown, Discovery Alert, Yahoo Finance, Mining News North, Equity Insider, U.S. Defense Logistics Agency.