In a stunning legal defeat for the White House, the Supreme Court ruled on February 20 that President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping global tariffs was illegal . Within hours, the administration pivoted, slapping a new 10% (now 15%) tariff on the world under a different law. But a deep dive into the ruling and the new policy reveals a looming disaster for the very working-class Americans who form Trump’s base: they are unlikely to see a dime of the estimated $130–$175 billion in illegal taxes already collected, and the new tariffs are on shaky legal ground .
The Supreme Court’s Rebuke
On Friday, a 6-3 majority, including two Trump appointees, ruled that the President cannot unilaterally create taxes by declaring trade deficits a “national emergency.” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that the power to impose tariffs—a “tax levied on imported goods”—belongs to Congress, not the Executive . The ruling specifically struck down the “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed in April 2025 under IEEPA.
The $175 Billion Question: Where is the Refund?
The most immediate financial impact of the ruling is the fate of the massive revenue already collected. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates the administration collected over $175 billion under the now-illegal program . While the Supreme Court did not order refunds, it opened the door for importers to sue for their money back in the U.S. Court of International Trade .
This is where the pain for MAGA’s core demographic begins. These tariffs were paid by American importers, not foreign countries. Those costs were largely passed down to American consumers in the form of higher prices or absorbed by small businesses .
While large corporations have the legal teams and resources to navigate the refund process, small and medium-sized businesses do not. As Alex Jacquez of the Groundwork Collective noted, over 1,000 companies had already filed for refunds before the ruling, a number expected to skyrocket . However, the process is complex. Small business owners—the backbone of Trump’s support—will likely eat the cost, having already paid higher prices for goods they couldn’t pass on to inflation-weary customers .
President Trump himself acknowledged the delay, telling reporters to expect a legal battle lasting “the next five years” . For a family struggling with the cost of living, a refund five years from now does nothing to pay today’s bills.
The “New” Tariff: Section 122 and the Same Old Problem
Immediately following the ruling, Trump issued a new proclamation citing the never-before-used Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing a 10% global tariff, later raised to 15% .
While the administration touts this as a legal end-run, experts argue it is merely a temporary fix with its own legality issues. Section 122 allows the president to impose a tariff of up to 15% to address “balance-of-payments” issues, but critically, it is limited to 150 days . After that, Congress must approve an extension.
Furthermore, legal analysts suggest this new tariff may also be illegal. He Weiwen, a senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, noted that the 10% global tariff applies to all countries without targeting specific products or unfair trade practices, meaning it still lacks clear statutory authority. He predicts state attorneys general will likely file new lawsuits to strike it down .
The Hidden Cost for the MAGA Base
Beyond the legality, the economic impact tells the story. Tariffs are a regressive tax, hitting lower-income households hardest. Democrats have pointed out that despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s denials, Americans are footing the bill . Polls from September 2025 showed 61% of voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living—the top economic concern .
The irony is bitter. The working-class voters who supported Trump on a promise of economic relief are the ones bearing the brunt of these policies. They are paying higher prices at the register today, and their small business owners may never recover the illegal overcharges the Supreme Court identified.
The Bottom Line
The Supreme Court’s ruling exposed the Trump administration’s tariff policy as legally unsound. While the White House scrambles to patch the leak with Section 122, the damage is done. Up to $175 billion sits in the Treasury—money taken unlawfully from American businesses and consumers . Getting it back will require a legal war of attrition that favors wealthy corporations over Main Street.
For MAGA, the promise of a trade war victory is turning into a bill that has come due—and it’s the very people who chanted “Keep Calm and Tariff On” who are left holding the receipt .